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The Reserve Bank of Australia has maintained the cash rate at 4.1%, reflecting easing inflation pressures while acknowledging tightness in the job market. RBA Governor Michele Bullock emphasized that inflation remains the top priority, distinguishing the RBA's stance from that of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Following this decision, the Australian dollar saw a slight increase against the U.S. dollar, with UBS suggesting that the downside is limited to 0.60-0.62 in the short term.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold interest rates steady amid concerns over tariffs and recent inflation data, which, while cooler, remains too high for further cuts. The Australian and New Zealand dollars have struggled against G10 currencies, with predictions of further declines, particularly against the US dollar. A cautious tone is anticipated from Governor Michele Bullock as the RBA navigates these uncertainties.
The Australian dollar has reached a two-month high of $0.6350, driven by a weakening US dollar and a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The RBA's recent cautious tone regarding inflation contrasts with global dovish trends, enhancing the currency's appeal. Technical analysis suggests a bullish outlook, with potential targets at $0.65 and $0.67, although external factors like tariff announcements could impact its ascent.
AMP Ltd. has made a historic investment of approximately A$27 million (around $17.2 million) in Bitcoin futures, becoming one of the first major Australian pension managers to embrace cryptocurrency. This cautious move, constituting about 0.05% of its total pension assets, reflects a shift in attitudes within the traditionally conservative sector, despite broader hesitance in the A$4.1 trillion Australian pension industry. AMP's Chief Investment Officer emphasized the importance of risk management and careful oversight in this evolving digital asset landscape.
Monochrome Asset Management is set to launch Australia's first spot Ethereum ETF (IETH) on Cboe, following the success of its Bitcoin ETF (IBTC), which raised $15 million since its June debut. Meanwhile, ASIC has proposed new regulations for digital assets, likening Bitcoin to prison currency, raising concerns about the impact on innovation and compliance for crypto tools like non-custodial wallets. The Australian Treasury is also considering regulating digital asset intermediaries under existing financial services laws to address consumer risks while fostering innovation.
AUD/USD closed last week at 0.6514, marking a second consecutive week of gains, driven by hawkish comments from RBA Governor Michele Bullock and a weaker US dollar following Scott Bessent's appointment as Treasury Secretary. Despite a projected 0.5% rise in Q3 GDP, the Australian economy faces slow growth, with the annual rate expected to remain at 1%. The currency pair is currently oversold, and a sustained move above 0.6550 is needed to shift the outlook towards neutrality.
Donald Trump's potential return to power raises concerns in Asia, particularly regarding trade and currency stability, as his threats of higher tariffs could disrupt the region's economic balance. Officials may face tough choices, including tolerating currency weakness or disappointing growth, as they await clarity on his fiscal policies. This contrasts sharply with earlier optimism driven by rate cuts and anticipated stimulus in China, which had fostered hopes for a more favorable economic environment.
Michele Bullock
People
The information provided herein is generated by experimental artificial intelligence and is for informational purposes only.
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